A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
